Aurora Macro Strategies

Brazil Election Monitor: Issue 15

October 12, 2026

Latin America

Flávio Bolsonaro enters the runoff with a strengthening polling lead, broad third-party endorsements and a right-leaning Congress, narrowing Lula’s path to a fourth term. Aurora assesses the uphill fight over abstainers and labor reform, and maps how a Flávio-aligned legislature could shape the next government.

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Brazil Election Monitor: Issue 15