Aurora Macro Strategies

Brazil Election Monitor: Issue 16

October 19, 2026

Latin America

Flávio Bolsonaro’s post-first-round lead has narrowed as Lula runs a more energetic campaign and uses incumbency to win over traditionally right-leaning voters. Aurora assesses the final-days advantage, the impact of the working-week amendment and the coalition dynamics that will shape Brazil after the runoff.

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Brazil Election Monitor: Issue 16