Aurora Macro Strategies

Brazil R2 Election Post-Mortem

October 26, 2026

Latin America

Lula’s four-million-vote comeback overturned the polls, the betting markets, and Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round advantage to deliver Brazil’s most dramatic presidential reversal in decades. Aurora breaks down the turnout dynamics, the legal and political limits of Flávio’s challenge, and the fiscal and congressional pressures awaiting Lula’s fourth term.

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Brazil R2 Election Post-Mortem