Aurora's 2026 select published research on the latest developments in geopolitics, global macro, and sovereign debt across developed and emerging markets. Filter by theme and request the full report.
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Showing 6 of 360 reports
November 6, 2026
Middle East Update: A Hope and a Prayer
Israel’s election is unlikely to change Trump’s calculus, but it may alter Iran’s room to maneuver as Netanyahu struggles to form a government. Aurora assesses the coalition math, the risk of renewed U.S. action against Iran, and what sharply reduced Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia mean for the regional outlook.
November 6, 2026
Ecuador’s pre-election fuel subsidies could expire sooner than expected as President Daniel Noboa balances political pressure against an urgent fiscal adjustment. Aurora assesses the timing of higher fuel prices, the credibility of the 2027 budget, and what Noboa must deliver to bring bond yields back down before returning to market.
November 6, 2026
AMF #121: The Volatility Ladder
A strong U.S. labor market is colliding with an anti-AI political backlash that threatens data-center expansion and semiconductor valuations. Aurora breaks down why the latest technology selloff is a sector-specific shock rather than an economy-wide collapse, and what tighter compute supply could mean for hyperscalers and creditors.
November 6, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Tax cut increasingly holds key to Takaichi’s fortunes
Japan’s lower house has approved a consumption-tax cut, sending the bill into a divided upper house and leaving Prime Minister Takaichi to own both its passage and its consequences. Aurora maps the remaining legislative hurdles, the political cost of governing without opposition support, and the implications for Japan’s fiscal outlook.
November 5, 2026
Paraguay’s president has resigned after the collapse of Ueno bank triggered a political crisis that exposed deep ties between the financial system and the ruling Colorado Party. Aurora assesses what a Pedro Alliana presidency means for the Shield of the Americas agenda, sovereign assets, and investor confidence in a country long treated as a regional stability story.
November 4, 2026
Public Debt Report: Taking Stock of Venezuela’s Takings
Venezuela’s proposed return or privatization of seized assets could give dispossessed investors a path to restitution before Caracas reaches terms with bondholders. Aurora assesses the country’s arbitration liabilities, unresolved investor claims, and which forms of compensation could be settled separately from the broader debt restructuring.
November 4, 2026
Macro Map Special: Blue Tsunami
Democratic victories in Congress and the states point to tighter fiscal negotiations, a more independent Fed, and tougher limits on new U.S. data-center development. Aurora maps the market consequences for the dollar, long-end rates, hyperscalers, and semiconductor companies exposed to the political backlash against AI infrastructure.
November 3, 2026
Europe Update: EU Chartbook — November 2026: Winter Is Coming
Europe is entering a difficult winter of energy costs, elections, and geopolitical pressure from a surprisingly stable macroeconomic base. Aurora assesses where bargain-hunting opportunities remain across asset classes, how ECB policy has affected bank margins and credit supply, and why immigration has softened Europe’s demographic drag.
November 2, 2026
Nicaragua Update: All in the First Family
As Daniel Ortega disappears from public view, Rosario Murillo and Nicaragua’s first family are extending their control into the private sector. Aurora maps the new risks for investors from changes to competition law, arbitration, presidential appointments, and business seizures even as stronger gold revenues and remittances improve sovereign finances.
November 2, 2026
Anthropic’s prospective IPO, tighter private-market valuations, and a still-restrictive Fed are turning the AI funding cycle into a key macro fault line. Aurora assesses how midterm politics, a possible Middle East de-escalation, and the appetite for financing compute could reshape rates, energy prices, and risk assets.
October 31, 2026
Ecuador Update: The Impunity Premium
Daniel Noboa is offering voters cheaper fuel while restricting his political opponents ahead of Ecuador’s high-stakes local elections. Aurora assesses whether Washington’s support can shield the government from backlash, how fiscal slippage affects bondholders, and what a stronger presidency would need to do to earn an impunity premium.
October 30, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: BOJ gains room from Takaichi as it judges inflation at target
The Bank of Japan held rates steady while signaling that underlying inflation has reached its 2% target. Aurora assesses how that quiet shift changes the pace of normalization and gives policymakers room to operate as Prime Minister Takaichi’s political agenda evolves.
October 30, 2026
AMF #120: K-Shaped Tech Companies
The U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders, but the AI infrastructure boom is leaving consumers, housing, and legacy technology businesses behind. Aurora breaks down the growing divergence inside the tech sector, why capex remains strong despite weak non-AI earnings, and what the split means for markets and credit.
October 29, 2026
Israel’s election is producing the hung parliament that markets expected, leaving Netanyahu with only 53 seats in the existing coalition bloc. Aurora assesses the parties that could defect, Washington’s warnings of renewed action against Iran, and what the shifting regional war means for Israel’s political future.
October 29, 2026
ECB Update: Lagarde’s Last Hold
The ECB held rates steady even as inflation remains well above target, while Christine Lagarde announced she will leave the bank early. Aurora assesses why a December hike is still likely, how the succession process could affect ECB independence, and why the decision is more hawkish than the headline suggests.
October 29, 2026
Aurora Brazil Update: Flight of the Flávio
Flávio Bolsonaro’s flight to the United States after losing Brazil’s presidential runoff is accelerating the fragmentation of the Brazilian right. Aurora assesses why Lula’s victory is unlikely to be overturned, how the Bolsonaro family’s influence is weakening, and what the February congressional leadership contests mean for governance and markets.
October 28, 2026
North America Report: Mexico and the limits of tariff pressure
U.S.-Mexico trade talks are approaching a possible deal on autos and energy as Washington seeks a market-friendly headline before the midterms. Aurora assesses whether an agreement can land in time, how President Sheinbaum is managing the pressure, and what happens if the window closes without a deal.
October 28, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Electoral reform deal a broader political win for Takaichi
A fractured Japanese opposition has handed Takaichi a political win by allowing the ruling coalition to advance electoral reform. Aurora assesses how the deal changes the upper-house arithmetic, removes a key opposition stalling tactic, and reshapes the battle over the consumption-tax cut.
October 28, 2026
The Fed held rates steady with two hawkish dissents, leaving markets to debate whether the pause is merely a bridge to a December hike. Aurora assesses the FOMC’s political and inflation risks, Kevin Warsh’s unusual forward guidance, and why the AI investment boom remains sensitive to financial conditions.
October 28, 2026
Public Debt Report: Citgo within Reach but Beyond Grasp
Citgo’s creditors are winning important legal battles but may still be unable to capture the asset as Washington weighs whether to preserve it. Aurora assesses the Third Circuit challenge, the PDVSA 2020 bond ruling, and the scenarios that will determine creditor recoveries and the fate of the sale.
October 27, 2026
Hot inflation has strengthened the case for tighter policy even as the Fed prepares to wait, leaving markets vulnerable to a hawkish hold. Aurora assesses the emerging FOMC split, the case for a December hike, and how next year’s voter rotation or easing geopolitical pressures could change the rate path.
October 27, 2026
Venezuela Update: MCM at the Rubicon
María Corina Machado’s return to Caracas has forced Washington’s Venezuela strategy to accommodate a leader capable of mobilizing large crowds at home. Aurora assesses how Machado can convert popular support into political leverage, why the U.S. oil-first approach may still permit a later democratic transition, and what comes next for the opposition.
October 26, 2026
Anthropic’s planned IPO and roughly $800 billion of compute commitments show that financial markets are still willing to fund the AI buildout at extraordinary scale. Aurora assesses why rates remain too low to halt the boom, how midterm politics could turn fiscal policy hawkish, and why the AI funding cycle still has room to run.
October 26, 2026
Brazil R2 Election Post-Mortem
Lula’s four-million-vote comeback overturned the polls, the betting markets, and Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round advantage to deliver Brazil’s most dramatic presidential reversal in decades. Aurora breaks down the turnout dynamics, the legal and political limits of Flávio’s challenge, and the fiscal and congressional pressures awaiting Lula’s fourth term.
October 23, 2026
AI infrastructure spending, a broken Fed reaction function, and Gulf and Ukraine supply shocks are pulling equities, rates, and oil in conflicting directions. Aurora maps the three forces behind the market’s broken correlations and the hawkish risks building into the Fed’s next decisions.
October 23, 2026
Brazil’s presidential runoff has tightened to roughly one point after a late scandal gave Lula fresh momentum against Flávio Bolsonaro. Aurora assesses the odds of a Flávio victory, the fiscal inheritance facing either president, and the market signals to watch on election night.
October 23, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Defense funding debate ramps up with outcome uncertain
Japan’s Takaichi government and ruling coalition are still negotiating how much to spend on defense and how to finance a larger budget. Aurora assesses the fiscal trade-offs, the political constraints on bond issuance, and the likelihood that corporate tax hikes become part of the final package.
October 22, 2026
The Dogs of War; Israel Elections Preview
Israel’s October 27 election is likely to produce a hung parliament, with Arab parties potentially holding the balance as Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox alliance faces its key fault line. Aurora assesses the coalition permutations and the risk of renewed conflict, alongside signs of recovery through Hormuz and renewed Houthi strikes on Saudi oil assets.
October 21, 2026
Takaichi’s coalition is moving a food-consumption-tax cut through Japan’s lower house, where passage is effectively assured but opposition support remains politically useful. Aurora assesses the tougher upper-house path, the leverage available to opposition parties and what the debate reveals about the coalition’s durability.
October 19, 2026
Russia-Ukraine: Springtime for Putin
Trump-Putin diplomacy is putting sanctions relief back in play and bringing the Russia-Ukraine war’s endgame into the near-term market outlook. Aurora updates its base case for the conflict, assesses the shift in regional geopolitics and maps what investors should watch as the market reprices commodities and rates.
October 19, 2026
Tech stocks are rebounding as upstream AI earnings remain strong, even while French spreads widen and the Fed stays behind an inflation shock. Aurora maps the competing forces across AI, rates, U.S. midterm politics and France, and explains why the October 26 earnings and central-bank superweek could set the next market direction.
October 19, 2026
Brazil Election Monitor: Issue 16
Flávio Bolsonaro’s post-first-round lead has narrowed as Lula runs a more energetic campaign and uses incumbency to win over traditionally right-leaning voters. Aurora assesses the final-days advantage, the impact of the working-week amendment and the coalition dynamics that will shape Brazil after the runoff.
October 19, 2026
D.C.’s Deafening Silence on Citgo
Washington’s refusal to support a stay of the Citgo sale has blindsided Caracas and weakened a strategy built around U.S. backing for Venezuela’s interim authorities. Aurora assesses what the silence means for the Third Circuit litigation, the sale process and the prospects for a broader Venezuelan debt restructuring.
October 16, 2026
An Anthropic growth scare is shaking the AI trade just as sticky U.S. inflation raises the prospect that monetary policy—not AI demand—poses the bigger risk to markets. Aurora breaks down what frontier-lab economics can and cannot say about the broader compute cycle, and why the Fed may need to hike before the October 26 macro superweek.
October 16, 2026
Public Debt Report: Cobre Panamá’s First Quantum of Solace
Panama is positioning for a controlled reopening of Cobre Panamá while seeking to settle billions of dollars in investor claims without openly defying its Supreme Court. Aurora maps the path toward a state-directed operating structure, the role of First Quantum, the timeline for reopening and the implications for the company’s credit and equity.
October 15, 2026
MENA Update: Iran’s Shipping Campaign Intensifies; Gulf Oil Flows Collapse
U.S.-Iran talks remain stalled as Houthi pressure on Saudi Arabia mounts, Gulf oil flows weaken and Israel approaches an election with no clear governing majority. Aurora assesses the risk of renewed regional conflict, the outlook for Riyadh’s strategy and the market implications for Aramco, shipping and the next Israeli government.
October 14, 2026
Managua’s diplomatic isolation is deepening as the Ortega-Murillo family moves toward a more formal hereditary succession and Chinese-linked mining expands its stake in Nicaragua’s gold sector. Aurora assesses the odds of a prolonged U.S. diplomatic freeze and new sanctions, while weighing how dependence on Western export markets preserves Washington’s leverage.
October 14, 2026
Aurora Japan: Takaichi abandons Yana as political costs mount
A cabinet minister’s resignation barely a month into Takaichi’s government exposes how quickly a political scandal can become a governing crisis. Aurora assesses the fallout from the leaked recording, the opposition’s democratic-norms narrative and the implications for reshuffle risk and cabinet stability.
October 14, 2026
U.S. CPI: A Political Economy Disaster
U.S. inflation has broadened beyond energy and tariffs, leaving the Fed behind the curve and real earnings growth under pressure ahead of the midterms. Aurora forecasts an October and December hiking cycle, assesses the risk of a more hawkish path, and maps the consequences for bonds, equities, households and the U.S. economy.
October 13, 2026
LatAm Update: Colombia’s Reverse Honeymoon
Colombia’s summer bond-market relief is fading as the peso, equities and fiscal debate point to a tougher year-end for President Abelardo’s government. Aurora maps the coalition math, the limits on 2027 budget adjustment, IMF conditions, BanRep’s response and the implications for Ecopetrol and pension-sector balance sheets.
October 12, 2026
Brazil Election Monitor: Issue 15
Flávio Bolsonaro enters the runoff with a strengthening polling lead, broad third-party endorsements and a right-leaning Congress, narrowing Lula’s path to a fourth term. Aurora assesses the uphill fight over abstainers and labor reform, and maps how a Flávio-aligned legislature could shape the next government.
October 9, 2026
Public Debt Report: The Art of the Citgo Stay
Venezuela’s interim authorities are moving to halt the Citgo sale as the country’s long-awaited debt restructuring seeks to regain momentum. Aurora assesses the stay strategy, the Third Circuit process and the significance of the U.S. government’s first formal response since Nicolás Maduro’s capture.
October 9, 2026
U.S. equities are reaching new highs as earnings growth, AI demand and a resilient consumer offset a hawkish oil shock, while French fiscal stress keeps Europe’s risk premium elevated. Aurora examines whether the optimism can extend through earnings season, how OpenAI demand flows into the AI supply chain, and why France may offer a contrarian opportunity.
October 8, 2026
LatAm Credit Update: Brazil’s FNAC Airline Credits
Brazil’s emergency FNAC airline-credit facility is nearing expiration as a right-wing administration promising fiscal consolidation appears poised to take power. Aurora maps the political and regulatory paths for the scheme, the differing exposure of GOL, LATAM and Azul, and the creditor risks under either runoff outcome.
October 8, 2026
MENA Update: Iran Steps Up Attacks on Shipping; Houthi Conflict Escalates
Iranian attacks are turning the Strait of Hormuz into a near-daily flashpoint, compressing crude flows while Saudi Arabia opens a new offensive against the Houthis. Aurora assesses Tehran’s targeting logic, the remaining cushion through Hormuz and alternative ports, and the risk that Red Sea retaliation widens across the Gulf.
October 5, 2026
Aurora Election Update: Brazil R1 Post-Mortem
Brazil’s first-round result is forcing a rapid rethink of the runoff map, coalition math, and market positioning. Aurora breaks down what mattered in the vote, what it signals for the policy path, and what to watch heading into R2.
October 2, 2026
LatAm Report: Brazil 2026 R1 Election Primer
Brazil’s first-round election is setting up a binary runoff with meaningful implications for the fiscal trajectory and risk premia. Aurora maps the scenarios, the key swing constituencies, and how to think about the post-R1 market reaction.
October 2, 2026
A shifting global macro backdrop is changing the balance of risks across rates, FX, and credit at the same time. Aurora assesses what’s different in the current setup, what it implies for cross-asset positioning, and which catalysts are most likely to break the range.
October 1, 2026
Aurora Public Debt: Z is for Citgo
The Citgo endgame is tightening the constraints around Venezuela’s restructuring timeline and recovery values. Aurora lays out the legal and political path ahead, the implications for creditor strategy, and what changes—and what doesn’t—in expected outcomes.
October 1, 2026
Aurora MENA: Tehranian Zugzwang
Tehran’s next moves are narrowing as regional pressure points converge across security, diplomacy, and domestic politics. Aurora assesses the most likely escalation paths, the constraints on de-escalation, and the market-relevant channels to watch.
September 29, 2026
Venezuela Update: What did we learn at UNGA?
UNGA delivered new signal on the external diplomatic track shaping Caracas’ near-term choices. Aurora distills what changed in the messaging, what it implies for negotiations and sanctions risk, and which next steps matter for timing.
September 28, 2026
Brazil Election Monitor: Issue 13
The late-campaign dynamics in Brazil are shifting the runoff baseline as turnout, alliances, and regional splits come into focus. Aurora updates the polling and scenario map, highlighting the key indicators that would point to a tighter—or cleaner—finish.
September 28, 2026
Nvidia’s cash generation is becoming a macro-relevant signal for capex, AI diffusion, and the broader equity cycle. Aurora breaks down what the cash pile implies for investment, competition, and the next phase of market leadership.
September 28, 2026
U.S. Chartbook - September 2026: Blue Scare
The September chartbook points to a U.S. macro mix that is increasingly driven by political-economy constraints as much as inflation mechanics. Aurora synthesizes the latest growth, labor, and prices signals—and what they imply for the Fed path and risk assets.
September 25, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Trump’s interest in yen increases Takaichi’s troubles
Renewed external focus on the yen is complicating the domestic political balance around policy and leadership in Japan. Aurora assesses how the FX angle feeds into factional dynamics, what it means for BoJ constraints, and where the market sensitivities sit.
September 25, 2026
The midterms are starting to shape the macro narrative through fiscal expectations, policy uncertainty, and risk premia. Aurora maps the scenario space, the likely sequencing of policy headlines, and the cross-asset implications as the cycle intensifies.
September 24, 2026
Aurora MENA: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
The region’s outlook is splitting across stabilizing tracks, persistent flashpoints, and tail risks that could reprice quickly. Aurora separates the constructive from the fragile, and flags the triggers most likely to produce market-relevant moves.
September 21, 2026
Macro Map: The Metaverse Strikes Back
The metaverse theme is striking back as AI infrastructure, digital-capex narratives, and risk appetite reconnect in markets. Aurora maps why the trade is re-emerging, where the macro sensitivity sits, and what could turn the rebound into another roundtrip.
September 21, 2026
Brazil Election Monitor: Issue 12
Brazil’s election race is tightening into a contest where small shifts in independents, coalition discipline, and scandal risk can move the probability board. Aurora updates the latest odds and explains which campaign dynamics matter most this week.
September 18, 2026
Nicaragua’s September update points to a regime still balancing sanctions pressure, external alignment, and domestic control. Aurora assesses which indicators are holding, which are deteriorating, and what could move country risk next.
September 18, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Ueda Remains True to Himself
Ueda is staying true to his cautious policy style even as Japan’s fiscal and inflation backdrop becomes more complicated. Aurora explains why the BOJ’s consistency still matters and how markets should interpret the latest signal.
September 18, 2026
Markets are entering the next phase of the cycle as policy tightening, AI-driven capital demand, and geopolitical stress reshape the opportunity set. Aurora explains what changes in this phase and where investors should look for the next break in consensus.
September 17, 2026
Belarus Update: Minsk Meeting Disappoints
The Minsk meeting disappointed expectations for a meaningful shift, leaving Belarus still caught between sanctions pressure, Russian dependence, and limited diplomatic maneuverability. Aurora explains why the outcome matters and what it signals for Eurasian risk.
September 17, 2026
Japan’s reshuffle is meant to stabilize Takaichi’s government, but it may also expose how narrow her political room has become. Aurora explains who gained influence, who lost leverage, and what the changes imply for fiscal and monetary policy.
September 17, 2026
MENA Update: Go West – And East
Regional actors are looking both west and east as Gulf diplomacy, security guarantees, and great-power balancing become harder to separate. Aurora assesses how the Middle East is hedging between blocs and what that means for escalation risk and energy markets.
September 16, 2026
The Fed has begun hiking, turning what had been a policy-risk scenario into the new market reality. Aurora breaks down why the decision matters, how the reaction function has changed, and what the start of the hiking cycle means for rates, the dollar, and risk assets.
September 15, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: The Specter of PDVSA 2.0
The specter of PDVSA 2.0 is raising new questions about Venezuela’s restructuring architecture, asset control, and creditor recoveries. Aurora explains why a revived or reworked oil vehicle could reshape the debt endgame.
September 15, 2026
The September Fed setup is becoming more consequential as markets weigh whether policymakers are preparing to validate or challenge higher-rate expectations. Aurora tracks the policy signals, labor-market evidence, and inflation risks that matter most for the next FOMC move.
September 14, 2026
Market enthusiasm is being curbed by tighter policy, stretched positioning, and a less forgiving macro backdrop. Aurora maps where confidence is fading first and which cross-asset trades are most exposed if optimism keeps cooling.
September 14, 2026
Aurora LatAm Chartbook: Peru, Ecuador, Colombia
Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia are each facing different versions of the same Andean stress test: climate risk, fiscal pressure, and political fragility converging at once. Aurora maps the chartbook evidence and explains where the region’s risks and opportunities are most concentrated.
September 14, 2026
Brazil Election Monitor: Issue 11
Brazil’s election race is moving deeper into a margin-of-error phase as coalition discipline, voter fatigue, and campaign execution become decisive. Aurora updates the probability board and explains which signals are shifting the odds this week.
September 11, 2026
AMF #113: The Limits of Intervention
Policy intervention is running into limits as markets test how far central banks, governments, and political actors can lean against the cycle. Aurora explains where intervention still works, where it is losing traction, and what that means for cross-asset risk.
September 10, 2026
The ECB’s September decision leaves Europe caught between weak growth, sticky inflation risks, and a market still looking for policy reassurance. Aurora explains what changed, what Lagarde left unresolved, and how the decision should feed through rates and the euro.
September 9, 2026
Tanker trouble and a Saudi spiral are putting energy security and Gulf stability back at the center of the risk map. Aurora assesses how shipping disruption, Saudi pressure, and regional escalation could transmit into oil and broader markets.
September 9, 2026
Aurora Japan: State of Exception
Japan is moving toward a state-of-exception policy environment as political stress and macro constraints push Takaichi toward extraordinary choices. Aurora explains what makes the moment unusual and how it could affect fiscal policy, the BOJ, and markets.
September 8, 2026
Brazil Election Monitor: Issue 10
Brazil’s election race remains fluid as both sides compete for momentum, coalition breadth, and credibility with undecided voters. Aurora updates the probability board and explains which campaign signals matter most this week.
September 8, 2026
Aurora Brazil Report: Neck and Neck
Brazil’s race is now neck and neck, turning campaign execution and marginal voter shifts into market-relevant variables. Aurora explains why the tightening matters, what it says about Lula and Flávio, and how the race could break from here.
September 8, 2026
St Leger’s Day marks a seasonal turn in market focus as investors reassess rates, risk appetite, and the durability of recent trades. Aurora maps the cross-asset setup and explains where the next leg of the cycle could begin.
September 4, 2026
Aurora LatAm Report: Petroperú in the Time of El Niño
Petroperú is facing El Niño at the same time that financial stress and sovereign-support questions are intensifying. Aurora explains how weather risk, fuel policy, and public-debt dynamics could collide in Peru.
September 4, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Little Clarity in the Initial 2027 Budget Numbers
Japan’s initial 2027 budget numbers offer little clarity on how Takaichi will reconcile fiscal promises with market constraints. Aurora explains what the early figures reveal, what they obscure, and why investors should wait for the real tradeoffs.
September 3, 2026
MENA Update: Diplomacy Dims as the Gulf Gets Restless
Diplomacy is dimming just as the Gulf gets more restless, raising the risk that regional actors start testing limits again. Aurora assesses why the diplomatic window is narrowing, where escalation risk is rising, and what markets should watch.
September 1, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: US Pressure on Macroeconomic Policy Puts Takaichi in Bind
U.S. pressure on Japan’s macroeconomic policy is putting Takaichi in a bind between alliance management, domestic politics, and market credibility. Aurora explains why the pressure matters and how it could constrain Tokyo’s fiscal and monetary choices.
September 1, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: Parsing the PDUSA Fact Sheet
The PDUSA fact sheet clarifies some of Venezuela’s restructuring architecture while leaving key questions unanswered. Aurora parses what is new, what is missing, and how creditors should interpret the next step in the process.
August 31, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: PDUSA Comes to Caracas
PDUSA is coming to Caracas as Venezuela’s restructuring process moves from abstract legal theory toward a more concrete institutional framework. Aurora explains why the vehicle matters, how it could affect creditor strategy, and what it means for the Citgo endgame.
August 31, 2026
Belarus Update: Minsk Makes its Move
Minsk is making its move as Belarus tries to turn constrained diplomacy and Russian dependence into tactical leverage. Aurora assesses what Lukashenko is attempting, how the West may respond, and why the move matters for Eurasian risk.
August 31, 2026
Brazil Election Monitor: Issue 9
Brazil’s election race is entering a more competitive phase as campaign discipline, corruption pressure, and coalition mechanics begin to matter more than headline advantages. Aurora updates the probability board and explains which shifts are changing the path to October.
August 27, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Takaichi Vulnerable Ahead of Challenging Political Stretch
Takaichi is heading into a difficult political stretch with less room for mistakes and more exposure to fiscal, party, and market pressure. Aurora explains where her vulnerabilities are most acute and what could determine whether she regains control.
August 27, 2026
MENA Update: D-Day Duds, Deals, and Deadlock
Gulf diplomacy is producing more duds than breakthroughs as deals stall and the regional deadlock hardens. Aurora assesses why the latest D-Day moment failed to shift incentives, where negotiations are stuck, and what could still force movement.
August 25, 2026
Aurora Macro Report: Trump's 50% Canada Solution
A proposed 50% Canada solution would turn North American trade from a low-volatility assumption into a macro shock. Aurora assesses the implications for tariffs, supply chains, inflation, and the broader U.S. policy outlook.
August 24, 2026
Brazil Election Monitor: Issue 8
Lula's advantages have not produced the momentum an incumbent would typically have by this stage, while corruption allegations and retail-sector stress leave little room to win over independents. Aurora updates the probability board and explains why the race remains more fragile than the coalition math suggests.
August 24, 2026
Aurora Public Debt: The Game Is Afoot for Venezuela's Oil
Venezuela's oil sector is becoming the next arena where creditors, sanctions policy, and geopolitical incentives collide. Aurora assesses who has leverage, what the game means for recovery values, and how oil could shape the debt endgame.
August 21, 2026
Markets are roundtripping major moves faster than conviction can build, exposing fragile positioning beneath apparently resilient price action. Aurora explains what the reversals reveal and where the next break in consensus could emerge.
August 20, 2026
MENA Update: A Loose Grip & Iraq as the Biggest Loser
Regional power is becoming harder to control, and Iraq looks increasingly exposed as the biggest loser from a looser Middle East balance. Aurora explains why weak leverage, fragmented politics, and external pressure leave Baghdad especially vulnerable.
August 18, 2026
Aurora Nicaragua Monitor: Aug 18, 2026
Nicaragua's political and macro trajectory is becoming more consequential for regional risk, with governance, sanctions, and economic pressure reinforcing one another. Aurora identifies the signals that matter most and how they could affect the country outlook.
August 18, 2026
Aurora Public Debt: Too Petroperuvian to Fail
Peru's petroleum-linked liabilities are testing the boundary between corporate stress and sovereign responsibility. Aurora explains why the market may be assuming too much support, and what that means for public-debt pricing.
August 17, 2026
Macro Map: The Global Interest Rate Shock
A global interest-rate shock is rippling across currencies, duration, equities, and commodities as markets reassess how high policy rates can stay. Aurora maps the transmission channels and explains where the shock is most likely to create second-order stress.
August 17, 2026
Brazil Election Monitor: Issue 7
Brazil's campaign is entering a more tactical phase, with coalition formation, messaging discipline, and voter segmentation becoming more important than headline polling. Aurora updates the probability board and explains which moves are changing the race.
August 14, 2026
The market clock is running down on several macro and policy catalysts, leaving investors with less time for benign assumptions to hold. Aurora explains which deadlines matter, where timing risk is most acute, and what could force the next repricing.
August 14, 2026
Ecuador August Chartbook: Back to Blackouts?
A new 10% U.S. tariff, a strengthening El Niño, and a fragile power grid are converging on Ecuador at once. Aurora forecasts the odds of successful energy mitigation, the timing of the next diesel subsidy cut, and what it means for the 2034s and 2039s.
August 13, 2026
MENA Update: Tehran Doubles Down
Tehran is choosing defiance over de-escalation, raising the odds that regional tensions remain elevated even without a full-scale confrontation. Aurora assesses how Iran's posture changes the risk map and where markets may be too complacent.
August 13, 2026
Markets are pricing the AI future as if infrastructure buildout, productivity gains, and financing conditions can all move in the same direction indefinitely. Aurora tests that assumption and explains where the macro sensitivity of the AI cycle is most exposed.
August 12, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: Crouching FX Claims, Hidden Venezuela Debt
Hidden Venezuelan debt and unresolved FX claims are becoming harder for creditors and policymakers to ignore, complicating the path to any durable restructuring. Aurora examines which obligations matter, how they could surface, and what they imply for recovery strategy.
August 10, 2026
Global markets are absorbing a new mix of rates volatility, currency pressure, commodity swings, and geopolitical catalysts. Aurora connects the week's key signals and explains which cross-asset moves are noise versus meaningful regime shifts.
August 10, 2026
Aurora Colombia Update: Aug 10 Earthquake
Colombia's August 10 earthquake adds a new layer of fiscal, infrastructure, and political pressure to an already fragile domestic backdrop. Aurora assesses the likely policy response and where the shock could matter most for markets.
August 10, 2026
Brazil Election Monitor: Issue 6
Brazil's election race is tightening around coalition discipline, campaign execution, and the limits of Lula's incumbent advantage. Aurora updates the probability board and identifies the shifts most likely to move the contest from here.
August 7, 2026
Aurora Colombia Chartbook: El Tigre versus El Niño
Political risk and climate stress are colliding in Colombia, with El Tigre and El Niño shaping a more complicated outlook for growth, energy, and governance. Aurora lays out the chartbook evidence and what it means for the country's risk premium.
August 7, 2026
The AI boom is becoming more dependent on cheap capital, infrastructure spending, and market confidence than the consensus narrative admits. Aurora examines the darker side of the cycle and why financing stress could turn the theme from a growth story into a macro vulnerability.
August 7, 2026
The latest U.S. jobs data sharpen the tension between resilient labor conditions and a rates market still searching for a clear Fed path. Aurora breaks down what the report changes for policy pricing, growth expectations, and cross-asset risk.
August 6, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: A Pemex Contagion Primer
Pemex stress is no longer just a corporate-credit problem, with contagion channels now running through Mexico's sovereign balance sheet and investor assumptions about state support. Aurora lays out where the risks could spread and why the market may be underestimating the fiscal linkages.
August 5, 2026
Middle East Update: L for the US of A
U.S. leverage in the Middle East is weakening as regional actors test Washington's limits and adjust to a less predictable security backdrop. Aurora explains where American policy is falling short and why the market risks are larger than they first appear.
August 4, 2026
Aurora Public Debt: Citgo and the Great Veny Reset
Citgo is becoming the fulcrum for a broader Venezuela debt reset, with legal claims, creditor strategy, and sanctions politics converging at once. Aurora assesses how the process could reorder recovery values and what it means for the next phase of Venezuelan restructuring.
August 4, 2026
U.S. Chartbook: Paying for the Future
The U.S. is pulling future demand, investment, and fiscal costs into the present, creating a macro backdrop that looks stronger but increasingly expensive. Aurora uses the chartbook to show where the bill is coming due and what that means for rates, growth, and markets.
August 3, 2026
Macro Map: Paper Gains and Managed Currencies
Paper gains and managed currencies are masking the strain underneath global markets, creating a more fragile cross-asset setup than headline moves suggest. Aurora identifies where policy management is distorting signals and which trades are most exposed if confidence breaks.
August 3, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Takaichi Buys Time with Joint Intervention but Tough Decisions Still Await
Joint intervention has bought Takaichi temporary breathing room, but it has not resolved the deeper policy contradictions behind yen weakness. Aurora explains why the next decisions will be harder, and what markets should watch as pressure returns.
August 3, 2026
Brazil Election Monitor: Issue 5
Brazil's 2026 race is taking shape around coalition math, campaign momentum, and a narrowing path for persuadable voters. Aurora updates the probability board and explains which political shifts matter most for the election outlook.
July 31, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: BOJ Holds but Anticipates Higher Inflation from Multiple Sources
The BOJ held policy steady while signaling that inflation pressure is no longer coming from a single source, keeping normalization risk alive. Aurora breaks down what the decision means for Japanese rates, the yen, and the next stage of policy tightening.
July 31, 2026
Consensus is leaning too comfortably against upside macro risk, even as policy expectations, positioning, and growth signals leave markets vulnerable to a repricing. Aurora maps where the surprises are most likely to emerge and why the risk balance may be less benign than investors assume.
July 30, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Consumption Tax Decision Sets Stage for Fall Fireworks
Japan's consumption-tax fight is moving toward the center of the fall political calendar, turning fiscal policy into a market catalyst. Aurora explains how the decision could reshape party positioning, inflation politics, and the policy tradeoffs facing Tokyo.
July 30, 2026
Aurora Geopolitics: Other Fronts to the Fore
Pressure is building across secondary fronts in the Middle East, widening the conflict map beyond the main theater and raising the risk of market-relevant spillovers. Aurora assesses which regional flashpoints matter most, where escalation risk is underpriced, and how investors should think about the next phase.
July 29, 2026
The Fed held rates with three dissents, but Chair Warsh couldn't offer a clear economic case for the decision, and markets punished him with the sharpest bear-steepening of any FOMC day in five years. Aurora breaks down why September is now pricing at 55%, and why Warsh's break from forward guidance is a bet he may not be able to sustain.
July 27, 2026
Macro Map: AI and Interest Rates
Oil and European gas are sinking on de-escalation hopes, while U.S. rate markets now price a 38% chance of a hike this week, the most uncertain Fed meeting since the pandemic. Aurora makes the case that AI deployment is far more interest-rate sensitive than the Fed admits, and why NVDA's rising CDS spread is worth watching.
July 27, 2026
Russia-Ukraine Update: Russia's Forever War and Its Renewed Geo-Economic Threats
Putin is expected to choose escalation over stagnation or capitulation, raising the odds of new conscription and strikes on Ukrainian assets with the biggest market impact. Aurora assesses the risk of Kyiv's drone campaign expanding to Russian LNG facilities, and why Western sanctions still fall short of the one lever that could actually move the Kremlin.
July 26, 2026
A new 10% U.S. tariff, a strengthening El Niño, and a fragile power grid are converging on Ecuador at once. Aurora forecasts the odds of successful energy mitigation, the timing of the next diesel subsidy cut, and what it means for the 2034s and 2039s.
July 24, 2026
AMF #108: Too Much of a Good Thing
Google just posted its first negative free cash flow quarter ever, and the market is still underpricing why that matters. Aurora breaks down the AI capex race, the real driver behind rising real rates, and why capital scarcity, not model competition, is the trade to watch.
July 23, 2026
Ortega has declared Nicaragua will never hold elections again. Aurora assesses the odds of U.S.-led regime change, the Ortega-Murillo succession plan, and where sanctions risk is headed next for investors exposed to the region.
July 23, 2026
MENA Report: A Tale of Two Straits
A second shipping chokepoint has just opened alongside Hormuz, and oil prices are already reacting. Aurora maps the export arithmetic behind the Bab el-Mandab closure and identifies the price level that could force Washington to act.
July 23, 2026
Markets are pricing a September ECB hike at 92% probability, and Aurora thinks that's a mistake. This report lays out why the case for a hike is weaker than consensus believes, and what Lagarde's exit timeline means for her successor and euro-area rate policy.
July 21, 2026
Japan: Economic Strategy Commits Japan to Risky Course of Action
Japan's new government is betting on expansionary spending just as borrowing costs climb. Aurora assesses how far Takaichi's growth strategy can go before markets push back, and what it signals for Japan-exposed portfolios.
July 21, 2026
FOMC voters are turning hawkish fast, and Fed funds futures are pricing a 26% chance of a hike next week. Aurora tracks who's shifted, who hasn't, and whether a hawkish hold or an outright hike is the more likely outcome.
July 20, 2026
Renewed U.S.-Iran clashes have pushed gasoline back above $4 and crude up 44% year to date, yet rates markets still see no July hike coming. Aurora examines why Fed surprises have all but disappeared, and what red-hot Q2 earnings and Google's looming cloud guidance mean for the rest of the year.
July 20, 2026
Brazil Election Monitor, Issue 3
Lula's re-election odds sit at 55% as coalition cracks widen around Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil's runoff. Aurora's weekly probability board tracks polling shifts, party convention risk, and how new U.S. tariffs are shaping the race.
July 20, 2026
Public Debt Report: Venezuela's Restructuring Clock Restarts
Caracas has confirmed it is revising its Debt Sustainability Analysis to account for the June earthquakes, keeping restructuring on the table for 2026. Aurora models how timing, fiscal capacity, and growth assumptions could reshape any relaunch, and flags the variable most likely to reveal the government's real timeline.
July 17, 2026
Japan: Legislative Wins Mask Bigger Challenges for Takaichi
Takaichi pushed through imperial succession reforms, but the win is exposing deeper fractures inside her coalition. Aurora assesses what her uncompromising style means for LDP unity, her remaining political capital, and how the opposition is adapting.
July 17, 2026
LatAm Report: Milei Plays to Win It in 90
Milei is already maneuvering for 2027 re-election, reshuffling his cabinet and pushing electoral reform to avoid a runoff. Aurora assesses the odds of that reform passing, Caputo's new FX-stabilization financing plan, and the rising political weight of Argentina's resource-rich provincial governors.
July 17, 2026
China's Kimi K3 model just beat top U.S. systems on frontier coding tasks at a fraction of the cost, rattling semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks. Aurora unpacks why 82% of AI spending still flows to cloud hosts rather than model makers, and what that means for GDP growth, rates, and the next Fed decision.
July 16, 2026
Washington and Tehran are each betting the other blinks first, with Iran running a calibrated escalation playbook across Iraq and the Gulf. Aurora assesses the risk of a Bab el-Mandab closure pulling Saudi Arabia into a more hawkish posture, and why de-escalation still looks more likely than open conflict.
July 15, 2026
Aurora Nicaragua Chartbook — Jul 14, 2026
Nicaragua's July chartbook shows a regime still absorbing pressure while relying on control, external ties, and selective economic resilience. Aurora identifies the indicators most likely to signal a change in the country-risk outlook.
July 13, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Changing the GPIF Will Be Easier Said Than Done
Changing the GPIF looks politically appealing but institutionally difficult, especially given Japan's fiscal and market constraints. Aurora explains what reforms are plausible, what resistance they face, and how the debate could affect domestic assets.
July 13, 2026
Markets are pricing eternal sunshine even as policy, valuation, and geopolitical clouds remain on the horizon. Aurora explains why optimism can persist, where complacency is building, and what could interrupt the calm.
July 10, 2026
Aurora LatAm Chartbook: Peru Braces for El Niño
Peru is bracing for El Niño as climate risk threatens infrastructure, inflation, fiscal planning, and political stability. Aurora uses the chartbook to show where the shock could hit first and what it means for sovereign risk.
July 10, 2026
A shadow task force is beginning to shape the macro-policy conversation behind the scenes, with implications for rates, fiscal strategy, and market expectations. Aurora explains who matters, what they may be planning, and why investors should pay attention.
July 9, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Takaichi's Opponents Force Her to Back Down Again
Takaichi's opponents have forced another retreat, showing that her mandate is more constrained than headline power suggests. Aurora explains what the setback means for fiscal policy, party discipline, and political momentum.
July 9, 2026
Introducing the Aurora Brazil Election Monitor
Brazil's 2026 election is moving into a phase where weekly probability tracking can clarify what polling and headlines miss. Aurora introduces the Election Monitor and explains how it will assess the race's market-relevant turning points.
July 9, 2026
Aurora MENA Report: Blinkmanship in the Gulf
Gulf actors are practicing blinkmanship as deterrence, energy risk, and diplomacy all depend on who moves first. Aurora explains why the standoff remains dangerous and what markets should watch for signs of escalation or retreat.
July 9, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: The Mandate That Lingers
Venezuela's lingering mandate is keeping asset control and creditor negotiations in legal limbo. Aurora explains why recognition questions still matter and how the mandate could shape the restructuring endgame.
July 8, 2026
Aurora Eurasia Report: Belarus July Update
Belarus's July update shows Minsk still navigating between Western pressure, Russian dependence, and constrained room for maneuver. Aurora explains which developments matter most and what could shift the Eurasia risk balance.
July 8, 2026
Aurora Brazil Election Monitor
Brazil's election outlook is becoming a dedicated market story as coalition dynamics, candidate positioning, and voter behavior start to drive probability shifts. Aurora introduces the monitor and explains how it will track the race.
July 7, 2026
Aurora Venezuela Earthquakes — Seventh Update
Venezuela's earthquake crisis is now in its seventh update, turning into a prolonged test of state capacity and political management. Aurora explains what the latest information changes and why the market implications remain unsettled.
July 6, 2026
Aurora LatAm Report: Colombian Restoration Trades
Colombia's restoration trade is gaining momentum as post-election expectations shift toward a more market-friendly policy path. Aurora explains what investors are pricing, what could validate the move, and where disappointment risk remains.
July 6, 2026
Markets are entering July with a mix of resilient risk appetite, unresolved rates pressure, and geopolitical tail risk. Aurora connects the week's macro signals and explains where the next repricing could begin.
July 2, 2026
Aurora Mexico Report: The Ten-Year USMCA Clock
The ten-year USMCA clock is starting to matter as Mexico, the U.S., and investors prepare for a trade-policy review with real macro consequences. Aurora explains what could change and which sectors and assets are most exposed.
July 2, 2026
U.S. Employment Situation: Not So Nice
A +57K payroll print and 61.5% labor-force participation rate make the U.S. labor picture look less nice than markets wanted. Aurora explains what the report means for Fed pricing, growth risk, and the next leg in rates.
July 2, 2026
Aurora MENA Report: For Whom the Strait Tolls
Strait risk is tolling for markets again as shipping, energy, and deterrence dynamics remain unsettled. Aurora assesses who bears the cost, how escalation could transmit through oil, and why the calm may be fragile.
July 2, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: Mystery Sums and Disaster Restructuring in Venezuela
Mystery sums and disaster-related claims are complicating Venezuela's restructuring arithmetic just as creditors look for a clearer path. Aurora explains how new liabilities could affect recoveries and why the debt stack remains harder to solve than it looks.
July 2, 2026
Aurora Venezuela: Doublet Quakes
Venezuela's doublet quakes are compounding the country's infrastructure and governance stress, with implications beyond immediate disaster response. Aurora explains what the sixth update changes and how the shock affects political and creditor assumptions.
June 30, 2026
Aurora Venezuela Report: Quakes — Fifth Update
The fifth Venezuela quake update shows the crisis moving from immediate shock into reconstruction, blame allocation, and political risk. Aurora explains how the aftermath could affect state capacity, investor confidence, and the broader transition story.
June 30, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: The Limits of Power
Takaichi's power is running into institutional, fiscal, and market limits despite her political momentum. Aurora explains where authority still matters, where constraints are binding, and why Japan's policy path remains difficult.
June 30, 2026
Ecuador is bracing for El Niño as weather risk threatens to become an energy, fiscal, and political problem. Aurora explains the mitigation odds, the grid vulnerabilities, and what the shock could mean for sovereign risk.
June 29, 2026
Nicaragua's latest chartbook shows persistent pressure across governance, sanctions exposure, and macro stability. Aurora identifies the indicators that are deteriorating, the ones still holding, and what could move country risk next.
June 29, 2026
Macro Map: Fed Independence Day
Fed independence is becoming a live market issue as political pressure and policy credibility collide ahead of a key macro turn. Aurora explains why central-bank autonomy matters for rates, the dollar, and broader risk assets.
June 28, 2026
Aurora Venezuela Report: Quakes — Fourth Update
Venezuela's quake fallout is becoming a rolling stress test for state capacity, regime messaging, and investor assumptions. Aurora updates the known damage, the policy response, and the risks that remain unresolved.
June 26, 2026
Success is becoming the market's base case, but the more crowded the optimism becomes, the more fragile the setup looks. Aurora explains what success would require and where the consensus could still fail.
June 26, 2026
Aurora Japan: Takaichi's Fiscal Gamble Comes Into View
Takaichi's fiscal gamble is coming into view as tax cuts, subsidies, and budget politics converge. Aurora explains why the wager could stabilize her coalition in the short run while increasing long-term market pressure.
June 26, 2026
Aurora Venezuela Report: Quakes — Third Update
The third Caracas quake update points to a longer tail of political, infrastructure, and market consequences than the first reports suggested. Aurora explains what has changed and why the recovery assumptions still look uncertain.
June 25, 2026
Aurora Venezuela: Caracas Quakes Again
Caracas is shaking again as political transition risk, infrastructure stress, and investor uncertainty converge. Aurora assesses what the quake changes, where the damage is most consequential, and how markets should interpret the first update.
June 25, 2026
Aurora Venezuela: Caracas Quakes
New information from Caracas is sharpening the risk assessment after the initial shock, with implications for governance, infrastructure, and creditor assumptions. Aurora updates the market-relevant facts and explains what still needs confirmation.
June 25, 2026
Aurora MENA Report: The No-Longer Dire Straits
The straits no longer look quite as dire after the latest de-escalation signals, but maritime and energy risks have not disappeared. Aurora explains what has improved, what remains fragile, and how markets should price the new balance.
June 25, 2026
Aurora Venezuela: Caracas Quakes — Second Update
Caracas's quake story is evolving quickly as additional details clarify the scale of damage and the political response. Aurora explains what the second update changes and which implications matter most for investors.
June 24, 2026
U.S. Chartbook — June 2026: Capital Shortage
A capital shortage is emerging beneath the surface of U.S. strength as fiscal needs, AI investment, and higher rates compete for funding. Aurora uses the chartbook to show why the cost of capital is becoming the key constraint.
June 23, 2026
Aurora Venezuela Report: Phase Three's Company
Venezuela is entering a third phase shaped by Delcy, Dinah, and Donald, with power-sharing, sanctions, and recognition all in flux. Aurora explains why the company in this phase matters and what it means for political and market risk.
June 23, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Takaichi Presses Ahead with Tax Cut Plan Despite Doubters
Takaichi is pressing ahead with tax cuts despite doubters inside the political and policy establishment. Aurora explains why the plan remains central to her strategy and where fiscal credibility could come under pressure.
June 22, 2026
Aurora Election Update: Colombia R2 Post-Mortem
Colombia's runoff result has clarified the country's political direction and reset expectations for governability. Aurora explains how the winning coalition came together, what the opposition does next, and how markets should price the aftermath.
June 22, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: The Citgo Preservation Playbook
The Citgo preservation playbook is taking shape as creditors, courts, and policymakers try to protect value before the next restructuring phase. Aurora explains which preservation tools matter and how they affect recovery outcomes.
June 22, 2026
The week's macro map points to a market balancing policy flexibility, geopolitical relief, and persistent capital-cost pressure. Aurora connects the signals and explains where the next cross-asset move is most likely.
June 18, 2026
Aurora MENA Report: The MoU of Versailles
A Versailles-style memorandum is creating the appearance of diplomatic structure without guaranteeing a durable settlement. Aurora explains what the MoU does, what it leaves unresolved, and why regional risks remain active.
June 18, 2026
Aurora LatAm Report: Colombia R2 Election Primer 2026
Colombia's runoff is setting up as a decisive test of restoration politics, anti-Petro consolidation, and institutional confidence. Aurora previews the scenarios and explains what each outcome would mean for markets.
June 17, 2026
EU Chartbook — June 2026: Scylla and Charybdis
Europe is navigating between Scylla and Charybdis as inflation risks and growth weakness leave policymakers with few easy choices. Aurora uses the chartbook to show where the EU policy mix is most constrained.
June 17, 2026
The Fed has preserved its freedom to act, but that flexibility cuts both ways for markets hoping for policy relief. Aurora explains what the decision signals about the reaction function and why rate risk remains two-sided.
June 16, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: No Surprises from BOJ as Focus Turns to Fiscal Policy
The BOJ delivered no surprises, shifting the market's attention back to fiscal policy and Takaichi's budget choices. Aurora explains why the next move may come from politics rather than the central bank.
June 15, 2026
Free cash is becoming the market's favorite justification for resilience, but liquidity and capital discipline may not be as durable as investors assume. Aurora maps the cash-flow story and where it could turn.
June 12, 2026
Aurora Eurasia Report: Belarus June Update
Belarus remains caught between sanctions pressure, Russian dependency, and limited diplomatic maneuverability. Aurora updates the June risk map and explains which developments could alter Minsk's trajectory.
June 12, 2026
The macro setup is approaching liftoff as growth, rates, and risk appetite align in a way that could extend the cycle. Aurora explains what has to go right, and where the launch sequence could still fail.
June 12, 2026
Aurora Nicaragua Chartbook: Under Pressure
Nicaragua is coming under renewed pressure from sanctions, governance constraints, and a less forgiving regional environment. Aurora uses the chartbook to identify where the strain is becoming most visible.
June 12, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: BOJ Will Send Useful Signals Even with Ueda Absent
Even without Ueda, the BOJ can still send useful signals about normalization, inflation tolerance, and the policy path. Aurora explains which cues matter and how markets should interpret them.
June 12, 2026
Aurora Ecuador Chartbook — El Niño Edition
El Niño is moving from weather risk to macro risk for Ecuador as energy reliability, fiscal costs, and growth sensitivity converge. Aurora uses the chartbook to show where the shock could hit hardest.
June 11, 2026
The ECB is leaning into uncertainty as Europe's macro path depends on forces it can only partly control. Aurora explains what "qué será, será" means for policy optionality, rates, and the euro.
June 11, 2026
Aurora MENA Report: Kharg Poker Threatens Beijing's Balancing Act
Kharg risk is turning into a geopolitical poker game that threatens China's balancing act between energy security and diplomatic restraint. Aurora assesses why Beijing's position matters and how the Strait risk could transmit into markets.
June 10, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Takaichi's Denials Do Little to Stem Growing Political Scandal
Takaichi's denials are doing little to contain a widening political scandal that threatens to weaken her governing authority. Aurora explains why the controversy matters for fiscal policy, coalition discipline, and market confidence.
June 9, 2026
Aurora Election Update: Peru R2 Election Pre-Mortem
Peru's runoff carries enough institutional and market risk to warrant a pre-mortem before the votes are counted. Aurora explains how each scenario could fail and what investors should watch on election night.
June 9, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: Citgo's Fate in the Age of Delcy
Citgo's fate is increasingly tied to Delcy's recognition, sanctions policy, and creditor litigation strategy. Aurora explains how the age of Delcy changes the asset-control fight and recovery outlook.
June 8, 2026
A capital crunch is emerging as funding needs rise across governments, companies, and AI infrastructure at the same time. Aurora maps the pressure points and explains why the cost of capital is becoming the central macro variable.
June 5, 2026
Peru's second round is approaching with institutional weakness, voter distrust, and policy uncertainty all elevated. Aurora previews the candidates, scenarios, and market implications of the runoff.
June 5, 2026
Labor and capital are being repriced in the AI era as productivity expectations clash with wage politics and investment needs. Aurora explains how that tension could shape inflation, margins, and asset allocation.
June 5, 2026
Aurora MENA Update: Diplomacy Falters
Diplomacy is faltering in the Middle East as the incentives for compromise weaken and escalation risks remain close to the surface. Aurora explains what broke down, which off-ramps remain, and how markets should price renewed tension.
June 3, 2026
Aurora Venezuela Report: Crude Drafts Cap Recovery
Draft oil arrangements could cap Venezuela creditor recoveries even as crude-sector activity improves. Aurora explains how contract terms, sanctions permissions, and asset-control politics shape the recovery ceiling.
June 2, 2026
Aurora Eurasia Report: Russia-Ukraine: Still a Stalemate
Russia and Ukraine remain locked in stalemate, but a static front does not mean static risk. Aurora assesses how attrition, sanctions, and military adaptation could shift the balance even without a decisive battlefield move.
June 2, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Takaichi Prepares Tax Cut Amidst Economic and Political Headwinds
Takaichi is preparing a tax cut as economic weakness and political resistance build at the same time. Aurora explains why the proposal may help the government tactically while worsening Japan's fiscal tradeoffs.
June 2, 2026
Colombia Election Update: Petro and Cepeda Diverge on Fraud
Petro and Cepeda are diverging on fraud claims, exposing tensions inside Colombia's left as the election moves into its next phase. Aurora explains why the split matters for runoff strategy and institutional risk.
June 1, 2026
Aurora Election Update: Colombia R1 Post-Mortem
Colombia's first-round result has reset the presidential race and clarified the path into the runoff. Aurora explains who overperformed, what coalitions matter now, and how markets should read the post-mortem.
June 1, 2026
Market euphoria is building despite a macro backdrop that still contains rates, geopolitical, and earnings risks. Aurora explains why the rally has momentum and where euphoria could become vulnerability.
May 29, 2026
AMF #102: Eight Truths About Macro in the Age of AI
The age of AI is changing macro through investment demand, productivity expectations, labor-market politics, and capital intensity. Aurora lays out eight truths investors need to understand before the theme becomes fully priced.
May 29, 2026
Aurora Nicaragua Chartbook — May 29, 2026
Nicaragua's May chartbook points to a regime still managing external pressure while relying on domestic control and selective resilience. Aurora identifies the indicators that matter for the next country-risk shift.
May 28, 2026
Aurora Election Primer: Colombia R1 2026
Colombia's first-round election is setting up as a test of coalition discipline, anti-Petro momentum, and voter appetite for restoration. Aurora previews the scenarios and explains what each outcome would mean for markets.
May 27, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: With New Budget Coming, Takaichi Faces Fuel Subsidy Fight
A new budget is bringing Japan's fuel-subsidy fight to the center of Takaichi's policy agenda. Aurora explains why the dispute matters for inflation, household support, and fiscal sustainability.
May 22, 2026
Aurora Brazil Report: A Master Serves Flávio
Brazil's political machinery is increasingly serving Flávio's campaign as elite coordination and coalition incentives shift. Aurora explains what the move says about the 2026 race and Lula's vulnerabilities.
May 22, 2026
AMF #101: The Cost of AI Capital
AI capital is becoming more expensive just as the investment cycle demands ever-larger commitments. Aurora explains why funding costs matter for the AI trade and how higher rates could challenge the market's growth assumptions.
May 22, 2026
Public Debt Report: PDVSA Talks Against the Citgo Clock
PDVSA talks are racing against the Citgo clock as legal deadlines and creditor strategy narrow the room for delay. Aurora explains why timing is now central to restructuring leverage and recovery outcomes.
May 22, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Government Faces New Pressures as Extra Budget Proceeds
Japan's extra budget is moving forward, but the government faces new pressure over costs, inflation, and political credibility. Aurora explains how the fiscal package could affect Takaichi's room for maneuver.
May 21, 2026
U.S. Chartbook — May 2026: The Hiking Cycle
The U.S. hiking cycle is becoming harder for markets to dismiss as growth and inflation data continue to justify restrictive policy. Aurora uses the chartbook to show why the Fed may have more work to do.
May 20, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Japan and South Korea, United in Insecurity
Japan and South Korea are increasingly united by insecurity, with shared strategic pressures pushing both toward closer coordination. Aurora explains how the alignment could reshape regional defense, trade, and alliance politics.
May 19, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Takaichi Pivots on Extra Budget as Crisis Impact Grows
Takaichi is pivoting on an extra budget as the crisis impact grows and political pressure for support increases. Aurora explains why the fiscal turn matters for inflation, bond markets, and government credibility.
May 19, 2026
Aurora Ecuador Chartbook, May 19, 2026
Ecuador's May chartbook shows a policy story still improving but exposed to energy, fiscal, and political risks. Aurora explains which indicators support the constructive case and which could still derail it.
May 18, 2026
A rates tsunami is washing through global markets as duration, currencies, and risk assets adjust to a higher-for-longer policy reality. Aurora maps where the pressure is strongest and what could trigger the next wave.
May 18, 2026
Aurora Cuba Update: The Negotiable Revolution
Cuba's revolution is becoming more negotiable as economic pressure and external incentives reshape the regime's options. Aurora explains what could be on the table and why the process remains politically constrained.
May 15, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: Decoding the PDVSA 2020 Hearing
The PDVSA 2020 hearing is a key legal waypoint for Venezuela creditors and asset claimants. Aurora decodes the arguments, the likely implications, and how the decision could alter recovery leverage.
May 15, 2026
AMF #100: Lessons from One Hundred Macro Weeklies
One hundred macro weeklies reveal recurring lessons about policy mistakes, market narratives, and the limits of consensus forecasting. Aurora distills the most important takeaways and explains how they apply to today's setup.
May 15, 2026
Aurora MENA Report: Iran-U.S. War: Winning the Waiting Game
The Iran-U.S. conflict is becoming a waiting game in which patience, pressure, and deterrence matter as much as direct escalation. Aurora explains who benefits from delay and what could break the stalemate.
May 15, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Takaichi's Agenda Faces Tradeoffs as Hormuz Crisis Continues
The Hormuz crisis is forcing Takaichi to confront tradeoffs between fiscal ambition, energy security, and strategic posture. Aurora explains how the conflict complicates Japan's domestic agenda and market outlook.
May 14, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: What to Expect When Expecting Veny Restructuring
Venezuela restructuring expectations are rising, but the process will depend on recognition, sanctions, claims sequencing, and institutional capacity. Aurora explains what to expect, what could disappoint, and where creditors should focus.
May 13, 2026
Aurora Nicaragua Chartbook: Special Kremlin Edition
Nicaragua's Kremlin links are becoming more visible as geopolitics, sanctions, and domestic regime strategy overlap. Aurora uses the chartbook to show how Russian influence changes the country-risk picture.
May 13, 2026
Aurora Venezuela FX Primer Chartbook
Venezuela's FX system is central to any credible macro normalization and debt restructuring path. Aurora uses the primer chartbook to explain the mechanics, distortions, and recovery implications investors need to understand.
May 12, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Bessent Visit Avoids Fireworks, but Offers Little Reassurance
Bessent's Japan visit avoided fireworks, but the absence of confrontation does not equal reassurance. Aurora explains what the visit left unresolved for trade, FX, and the U.S.-Japan policy relationship.
May 11, 2026
Markets are behaving as if gravity has been suspended, with risk appetite resisting rates, geopolitical, and earnings pressure. Aurora explains why the anti-gravity trade can persist and what could finally pull it down.
May 8, 2026
Risk markets are moving into rally central as liquidity, positioning, and macro optimism reinforce each other. Aurora explains what is driving the move and which conditions would need to hold for it to continue.
May 8, 2026
Aurora Colombia Report: A Separate Peace for BanRep
Colombia's central bank is pursuing a separate peace from the political noise around it, preserving policy credibility while the broader backdrop remains tense. Aurora explains what BanRep's stance means for carry, rates, and sovereign risk.
May 6, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Regional Trip Shows Guiding Principles of Takaichi Diplomacy
Takaichi's regional trip is revealing the guiding principles behind Japan's diplomacy as security, trade, and domestic politics converge. Aurora explains what the trip says about Tokyo's strategic priorities and constraints.
May 5, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: GL58: OFAC's Cornerstone for the Venezuelan Restructuring
GL58 is becoming OFAC's cornerstone for a Venezuela restructuring framework, defining what creditors, companies, and political actors can do next. Aurora explains how the license shapes negotiation leverage and recovery scenarios.
May 4, 2026
Titanium-like resilience is defining markets as risk assets absorb shocks that would normally dent sentiment. Aurora maps why the surface strength is holding and where the first cracks could appear.
May 1, 2026
Aurora Ecuador Chartbook April 30
Ecuador's April chartbook shows a country balancing improved policy momentum against persistent fiscal, energy, and political constraints. Aurora explains where the data support optimism and where the risks remain.
May 1, 2026
Aurora MENA Report: Iran-U.S. War: An Unhappy Equilibrium
The Iran-U.S. conflict is settling into an unhappy equilibrium where neither side wants full escalation but neither can fully step back. Aurora explains why the balance is unstable and where renewed pressure could emerge.
May 1, 2026
Markets are being asked to take both pills at once: believe in AI-driven upside while also accepting a more constrained macro policy backdrop. Aurora explains why the combination may be harder to sustain than investors think.
April 30, 2026
The ECB is moving with confidence, but the sequencing of policy decisions risks looking more like ready-fire-aim than a clean reaction function. Aurora assesses the implications for rates, the euro, and European risk assets.
April 30, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: Venezuela's Long and Winding FX Road
Venezuela's FX road remains long and winding as monetary reform, sanctions, and creditor claims intersect. Aurora explains why currency mechanics could become central to the restructuring story.
April 29, 2026
The Fed is emphasizing staying power as resilient activity and sticky inflation keep a quick pivot off the table. Aurora explains why the policy path remains restrictive and what markets are still mispricing.
April 28, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Inflation Fears Could Take Precedence as BOJ Eyes Stagflation
Inflation fears are beginning to outrank growth concerns as the BOJ confronts a stagflationary policy mix. Aurora explains why Japan's central bank may have less room to wait and what the shift means for rates and the yen.
April 27, 2026
Aurora Africa: Senegal at the IMF Meetings
Senegal's IMF Meetings backdrop is testing how quickly reform credibility can translate into market confidence. Aurora assesses the debt, financing, and policy signals that matter most for the country's outlook.
April 27, 2026
Super Wednesday concentrates the week's macro risk into a set of policy and data catalysts that could reset market expectations. Aurora maps the scenarios and explains which assets are most exposed.
April 24, 2026
Markets are living in a virtual reality where AI expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite can overpower near-term macro constraints. Aurora explains what is real, what is speculative, and where the boundary could break.
April 23, 2026
Aurora Africa: World Bank Meetings — Gabon
Gabon's World Bank Meetings story highlights how debt, reform credibility, and external financing are shaping frontier-market risk. Aurora explains what the meetings revealed and why the country remains relevant for public-debt investors.
April 22, 2026
Aurora LatAm Report: Lula in Winter
Lula is entering a colder political season as coalition strains and policy limits reduce his room for maneuver. Aurora assesses whether the winter is cyclical or structural, and what it means for Brazil's outlook.
April 22, 2026
U.S. Chartbook — April 2026: The Post-War Boom
The U.S. economy is moving into a post-war boom narrative, with demand, capex, and fiscal support reinforcing market optimism. Aurora uses the chartbook to test whether the boom is durable or already overheating.
April 21, 2026
Nicaragua's chartbook shows a country still navigating sanctions, governance pressure, and uneven macro resilience. Aurora identifies the indicators that matter most for the next phase of country risk.
April 21, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Tokyo Scraps Arms Export Limits for Security and Growth
Tokyo's move to scrap arms-export limits links Japan's security strategy directly to industrial and growth policy. Aurora explains why the shift matters for defense, diplomacy, and the country's broader economic model.
April 20, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: IMF Dealings with Delcy
IMF engagement with Delcy would turn Venezuela's recognition question into a practical restructuring issue. Aurora assesses what the Fund can and cannot do, and why its dealings could shape the creditor endgame.
April 20, 2026
Global markets are balancing resilient risk appetite against policy, geopolitical, and liquidity constraints. Aurora maps the week's key signals and explains where cross-asset pricing is most vulnerable to a shift.
April 20, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Tokyo on Edge
Tokyo is on edge as political pressure, fiscal choices, and market expectations collide. Aurora explains which decisions could stabilize the outlook and which could make Japan's policy mix harder to sustain.
April 17, 2026
Iran-U.S. Update: Ceasefire Without Peace
The ceasefire has reduced immediate violence without resolving the conflict's core drivers, leaving the region in a state of peace without settlement. Aurora explains why the next escalation risk may already be embedded in the truce.
April 17, 2026
AMF #96: Notes from the Spring Meetings
The Spring Meetings are clarifying how policymakers and investors see debt, growth, inflation, and geopolitical risk in the next phase of the cycle. Aurora distills the key macro takeaways and explains what they mean for positioning.
April 15, 2026
Aurora Peru Election Mess Update
Peru's election process is turning messier as institutional weakness, candidate fragmentation, and policy uncertainty compound. Aurora explains what the disorder means for the vote, governability, and sovereign-risk pricing.
April 13, 2026
Blockade risk is becoming a central macro variable as trade routes, energy flows, and geopolitical leverage tighten. Aurora maps the cross-asset consequences and explains where markets may be too quick to assume disruption will remain contained.
April 10, 2026
Aurora Ecuador Chartbook: Building Back to Bullish on Noboa
Ecuador's outlook is becoming more constructive as Noboa's policy execution and external support improve the investment case. Aurora uses the chartbook to show why the bullish case is rebuilding and where the risks still sit.
April 10, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: Delcy Recognition and Its Discontents
Delcy recognition would create as many legal and political discontents as it resolves, especially for creditors trying to establish authority and payment paths. Aurora explains where recognition helps, where it complicates recoveries, and what disputes could follow.
April 8, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Takaichi Prepares for Battles Over "Divisive" Agenda
Takaichi is preparing for battles over an agenda opponents are framing as divisive, raising the political cost of policy execution. Aurora explains which fights matter most and how they could affect Japan's reform path.
April 8, 2026
A ceasefire is changing the near-term market setup, but it may not remove the deeper conflict risks that drove the repricing. Aurora maps which assets should benefit, which risks remain, and how fragile the calm may be.
April 8, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: A Venezuelan Debt Triage
Venezuela's debt stack requires triage as recognition, sanctions, and asset claims create competing paths to recovery. Aurora explains which claims come first, which can wait, and where creditors should focus.
April 8, 2026
Aurora MENA Report: Iran-U.S. War: Schrödinger's Ceasefire
The Iran-U.S. ceasefire is both alive and dead, reducing immediate pressure while leaving the conditions for renewed conflict intact. Aurora assesses what would make the ceasefire hold, what would break it, and how markets should price the ambiguity.
April 3, 2026
Markets are starting to fade the war just as the underlying geopolitical and energy risks remain unresolved. Aurora explains why complacency could build too quickly and which assets would be exposed if escalation returns.
April 2, 2026
Iran-U.S. War Update: Talks and TACOs
Iran-U.S. talks are mixing tactical openings with threats, leaving both sides closer to a temporary arrangement than a real settlement. Aurora assesses whether the TACOs can hold and where escalation risk remains.
April 2, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Government Already Looking to Stimulus as Crisis Continues
Japan's government is already turning toward stimulus as crisis pressures continue to build. Aurora explains why fiscal support may be politically necessary but economically complicated, especially with inflation and BOJ credibility in focus.
April 1, 2026
Aurora Venezuela Report: Mixed Messages from Miraflores
Miraflores is sending mixed messages on transition, sanctions, and power-sharing, making it harder for markets to price Venezuela's next phase. Aurora explains which signals to trust and what they mean for political risk.
March 30, 2026
Nicaragua's data continue to show a regime balancing economic resilience against deepening political and external pressure. Aurora uses the chartbook to identify the stress points that could matter most for the country outlook.
March 30, 2026
Powell's signal is reverberating through EC10 markets as investors reassess the interaction between U.S. policy and European rates. Aurora maps the transmission channels and explains where central-bank divergence could create opportunity or stress.
March 30, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: A YPF Chronicle of a Reversal Foretold
YPF's reversal looks increasingly foretold as legal strategy, sovereign politics, and investor expectations collide. Aurora explains how the case could affect Argentine risk and the broader public-debt playbook.
March 27, 2026
Markets are being invited to bet against the Fed, but the macro data may not justify that confidence. Aurora explains why the central bank's reaction function still matters and where the trade could go wrong.
March 26, 2026
Aurora Middle East: The Diplomatic Dance, Ultimatums, and Escalation Ladders
Diplomacy around the Iran-U.S. conflict is becoming a dance of ultimatums and escalation ladders, leaving little room for clean compromise. Aurora explains which signals matter, where talks could fail, and how markets should read the risk of renewed escalation.
March 25, 2026
Aurora Ecuador Report: Macro and Debt Under DC's Thumbrella
Ecuador's macro and debt outlook is being shaped by Washington's protection, but the cover may not be enough to remove fiscal and political risk. Aurora assesses how DC support affects spreads, reform incentives, and the next debt milestones.
March 23, 2026
Eurasia Report: Belarus Sanctions Relief & Precedent Setting Deals
Belarus sanctions relief could set precedents that reach beyond Minsk, affecting how Western governments trade concessions for strategic behavior. Aurora assesses what the deal structure signals and why it matters for Eurasian sanctions policy.
March 23, 2026
Policymakers and markets are increasingly choosing big moves over incremental adjustment, raising the stakes for every macro catalyst. Aurora maps where aggressive policy and positioning could either extend the rally or force a reversal.
March 23, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Opposition Wins Standoff as Government Orders Provisional Budget
Japan's opposition has won a budget standoff, forcing the government into a provisional approach that weakens Takaichi's aura of control. Aurora explains what the setback means for fiscal policy and coalition discipline.
March 20, 2026
March is delivering a disorderly mix of policy surprises, geopolitical shocks, and market reversals. Aurora explains which moves are noise, which are signal, and where the madness could break next.
March 20, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Takaichi Woos Trump but Japan Still Faces a Sea of Troubles
Takaichi's Trump outreach may help manage the alliance, but it cannot solve Japan's deeper fiscal, security, and monetary challenges. Aurora explains why Japan still faces a sea of troubles despite diplomatic progress.
March 19, 2026
Iran-U.S. War Update: Diminishing Off-Ramps as Energy Risks Escalate
The Iran-U.S. conflict is losing off-ramps as energy infrastructure and shipping risks move closer to the center of the confrontation. Aurora explains why escalation control is getting harder and where market risk is most concentrated.
March 19, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Bank of Japan Enters Holding Pattern Again
The BOJ is back in a holding pattern, leaving markets to infer policy direction from inflation signals and political pressure. Aurora explains why inaction still matters and what could force the next move.
March 19, 2026
The ECB is presenting itself as well positioned, but Europe's policy mix still depends on fragile growth and uncertain inflation progress. Aurora assesses whether the central bank's confidence is warranted and what it means for rates.
March 18, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: PDVSA Board Games
PDVSA's board politics are becoming central to Venezuela's debt and asset-control disputes. Aurora explains why governance questions could determine creditor leverage, oil-sector strategy, and the restructuring path.
March 18, 2026
FOMC Update: The Snooze Button
The Fed hit the snooze button rather than resolving the tension between resilient activity and persistent inflation. Aurora explains why delay is itself a policy signal and what it means for the next move in rates.
March 18, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Critical Test Awaits Takaichi in Washington
Takaichi's Washington test will reveal how much room Japan has to pursue its domestic agenda while managing alliance demands. Aurora assesses the stakes for trade, security, and fiscal policy.
March 17, 2026
U.S. Chartbook — March 2026: The War Economy
The U.S. economy is increasingly operating like a war economy, with fiscal demand, industrial policy, and security spending reshaping the cycle. Aurora uses the chartbook to show what this means for growth, inflation, and rates.
March 16, 2026
Aurora Nicaragua Chartbook — Mar 16, 2026
Nicaragua's economic and political data point to a system under sustained pressure but not yet at a decisive breaking point. Aurora uses the chartbook to identify the stress indicators most relevant for investors and policymakers.
March 16, 2026
Maritime risk is becoming a cross-asset problem as trade routes, energy flows, and security guarantees come under pressure. Aurora maps the sea-lane vulnerabilities and explains how they could feed into inflation, commodities, and risk sentiment.
March 14, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Takaichi's Budget Blitz Moves to the Upper House
Takaichi's budget blitz is moving into the upper house, where political arithmetic and policy concessions will matter more than headline momentum. Aurora explains what could slow the process and how investors should read the negotiations.
March 13, 2026
Central banks are stuck in a monetary malaise, with inflation, growth, and credibility concerns preventing a clean easing cycle. Aurora explains why policy uncertainty remains high and how that malaise is affecting cross-asset pricing.
March 12, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: Delcy Recognized as Head of State
Recognition of Delcy as head of state would reshape Venezuela's legal and debt landscape overnight. Aurora explains how recognition affects asset control, creditor claims, and the path toward restructuring.
March 12, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Numbers Versus Norms
Japan's political math may point one way while institutional norms pull another. Aurora explains why the numbers-versus-norms tension matters for Takaichi's mandate, coalition strategy, and fiscal policy.
March 12, 2026
Aurora LatAm Report: One Small Setback for Lula
Lula has suffered a small setback that could carry larger implications for coalition management and legislative strategy. Aurora assesses whether the episode is noise or an early sign of a more constrained presidency.
March 11, 2026
Iran-U.S. War Update: Moving to Phase II
The Iran-U.S. war is moving into Phase II as both sides adjust from initial escalation to a more durable confrontation. Aurora assesses the new objectives, risks of miscalculation, and market channels most exposed.
March 9, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Takaichi Still Formidable but Challenges Grow at Home and Abroad
Takaichi remains politically formidable, but domestic resistance and external shocks are making the governing environment harder. Aurora assesses where her mandate is strongest, where it is fraying, and what that means for policy execution.
March 9, 2026
Aurora Colombia Election Update: 8M Legislative and Consultas Post-Mortem
Colombia's 8M results clarified the legislative and consulta terrain that will shape the presidential race. Aurora explains who gained momentum, who lost leverage, and what the results mean for governability.
March 9, 2026
Oil is becoming the key swing variable for the macro map as geopolitical shocks collide with demand, inflation, and central-bank expectations. Aurora explains how the energy move is transmitting across rates, FX, and risk assets.
March 6, 2026
Markets are misreading geopolitical risk by treating escalation as episodic rather than structural. Aurora explains where the failures of deterrence, diplomacy, and pricing are most visible across assets.
March 6, 2026
Aurora Eurasia Report: Eurasia Further Engulfed in Conflict
Eurasia's conflict map is expanding as military pressure, sanctions, and political fragmentation reinforce one another. Aurora assesses which fronts are most likely to intensify and why regional risk remains underpriced.
March 6, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: IMF Menu for Restructuring Venezuela Debt
The IMF's menu of options could define the boundaries of any Venezuela debt restructuring, but politics and recognition still determine what is feasible. Aurora explains which tools matter, what they can solve, and where creditors still face uncertainty.
March 5, 2026
Ecuador Update: Boots on the Ground
On-the-ground signals from Ecuador point to a more complicated mix of security pressure, fiscal constraints, and policy execution risk. Aurora explains what the field evidence changes and how it should inform the country outlook.
March 5, 2026
Belarus Report: Minsk Continues to March Solo
Minsk is continuing to chart a lonely course as sanctions pressure, Russian dependence, and domestic constraints narrow its options. Aurora assesses why Belarus remains strategically exposed and what solo maneuvering means for Eurasian risk.
March 5, 2026
Aurora Colombia Report: 8M — The Election Behind the Election
Colombia's 8M contest is becoming the election behind the election, shaping alliances and voter expectations before the headline race fully begins. Aurora explains why the result matters for Petro, the opposition, and the next policy cycle.
March 4, 2026
Aurora Japan: Iran War Presents Short-Term Challenges, Long-Term Opportunities for Takaichi
The Iran war is creating near-term energy and security headaches for Japan while opening a longer-term opportunity for Takaichi to justify strategic policy shifts. Aurora explains how the crisis could reshape Tokyo's fiscal, defense, and diplomatic agenda.
March 4, 2026
Aurora LatAm Report: Ports, Mines, and Juristocracy in Panama
Panama's ports, mines, and courts are colliding in a governance fight with implications for investment and sovereign risk. Aurora explains how juristocracy is shaping policy outcomes and why the country's institutional balance matters for markets.
March 2, 2026
Aurora Mexico: Jalisco — The Next Generación
Jalisco is becoming a test case for Mexico's next political and security generation. Aurora examines how organized crime, state politics, and national ambitions intersect in one of the country's most important battlegrounds.
March 2, 2026
MENA markets are being pulled between geopolitical escalation, energy risk, and global rates pressure. Aurora maps the regional transmission channels and explains where market pricing looks most vulnerable.
March 2, 2026
Aurora Middle East Report: Iran-U.S. War Round II
The Iran-U.S. confrontation is entering a second round, with escalation risk moving beyond signaling and into operational decisions. Aurora assesses the likely pathways, off-ramps, and market consequences of a renewed conflict phase.
February 27, 2026
AMF #90: The Political Economy of AI
AI is becoming a political-economy story as governments, labor markets, and capital allocators compete to shape the gains. Aurora explains why the distribution of AI benefits matters for macro policy and market pricing.
February 26, 2026
Aurora Middle East: Iran on the Brink
Iran is moving closer to the brink as escalation dynamics, regime pressure, and external deterrence collide. Aurora assesses the most likely triggers, the limits of diplomacy, and the market channels most exposed.
February 25, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Will Takaichi's Fiscal Ambitions Reach Into Monetary Policy?
Takaichi's fiscal ambitions are increasingly difficult to separate from Japan's monetary-policy outlook. Aurora explains how budget expansion could pressure the BOJ, the yen, and the credibility of policy normalization.
February 24, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: Venezuela's New License to Drill
Venezuela's new license to drill could increase oil-sector activity while complicating the legal and sanctions environment around debt recovery. Aurora assesses who benefits, what creditors should watch, and why more barrels do not automatically mean better recoveries.
February 23, 2026
Tradeable assets are beginning to reflect a sharper divergence between global macro narratives and policy reality. Aurora maps the signals across currencies, rates, commodities, and equities to show where the next moves could come from.
February 23, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: The Supreme Court Cannot Save Japan from Strategic Reality
Japan's courts may shape the political process, but they cannot remove the strategic constraints facing Tokyo. Aurora explains why security, fiscal, and alliance realities will continue to dominate the policy outlook.
February 20, 2026
The macro backdrop is running hotter than the market's preferred narrative allows, keeping pressure on rates and risk assets. Aurora explains which indicators matter most and why the overheating risk remains underpriced.
February 19, 2026
Aurora LatAm Report: The Machiavellian Anarcho-Capitalist
Milei's political strategy is becoming more Machiavellian as Argentina's anarcho-capitalist experiment meets institutional reality. Aurora assesses how tactical compromise, reform sequencing, and market patience are shaping the next phase.
February 18, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Reading Between the Lines of the First U.S.-Japan Investments
The first U.S.-Japan investment signals are saying more than the headline commitments suggest. Aurora reads between the lines to assess strategic alignment, industrial policy, and the implications for Japan's growth agenda.
February 17, 2026
Client Note: Monetary Policy and AI, Governor Barr
Monetary policy and AI are converging as productivity narratives collide with inflation, investment, and financial-stability questions. Aurora explains what Governor Barr's framing implies for the Fed and why AI is becoming a macro-policy issue.
February 13, 2026
Markets are increasingly organized around one big macro bet, leaving positioning vulnerable if the core assumption breaks. Aurora identifies the bet, the pressure points around it, and the assets most exposed to a reversal.
February 13, 2026
Aurora Colombia Update: Resubmit and Carry On
Colombia's policy path is being reshaped by renewed submissions, institutional checks, and the politics around BanRep. Aurora explains why the carry story can continue and where the next domestic risks may emerge.
February 12, 2026
Aurora U.S. Report: February Chartbook: Prepare for Liftoff
U.S. macro data are setting up for liftoff rather than slowdown, challenging the market's expectation of easier policy. Aurora lays out the chart evidence and explains why rates may need to move higher for longer.
February 11, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: Fantastic Bolivarian Assets and Where to Find Them
Venezuela's recoverable assets are scattered across legal jurisdictions, political constraints, and sanctions regimes. Aurora explains where creditors should look, what can realistically be reached, and how asset discovery could shape recoveries.
February 9, 2026
Belarus Report: EU Pressure Continues to Rise Despite U.S. Engagement
EU pressure on Belarus is rising even as U.S. engagement creates a more complicated diplomatic backdrop. Aurora explains why Minsk remains squeezed and how sanctions, negotiations, and Russian influence interact.
February 9, 2026
Macro Map: The Tech Debt Avalanche
The technology cycle is creating a debt avalanche as AI investment, financing needs, and market expectations compound. Aurora maps the macro consequences and explains why the funding side of the boom may become the next risk.
February 8, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Takaichi Restructures the Political Landscape
Takaichi's election result is restructuring Japan's political landscape and changing the balance between fiscal ambition and institutional restraint. Aurora assesses what the new alignment means for the government's agenda and markets.
February 6, 2026
AI is swallowing the macro conversation as markets price a productivity and capex cycle that could reshape growth, rates, and corporate balance sheets. Aurora explains where the AI story is real, where it is overextended, and what it means for asset allocation.
February 6, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: What to Watch for on Election Day
Japan's election day will matter beyond the size of the LDP victory, with turnout, opposition coordination, and mandate clarity all shaping the aftermath. Aurora explains which signals will determine whether Takaichi exits strengthened or constrained.
February 5, 2026
The ECB is projecting confidence even as Europe's growth and inflation mix remains more fragile than the headline message suggests. Aurora assesses whether the central bank has room to feel good and what it means for European rates.
February 5, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: What to Expect After Venezuela's GL5U
Venezuela's GL5U decision is creating a new legal and sanctions framework for creditors, asset holders, and political actors. Aurora explains what changes now, what remains blocked, and how the restructuring timeline could shift.
February 5, 2026
Aurora LatAm Report: Colombia Carry Carries On
Colombia's carry trade is still holding despite political noise and macro pressure, but the margin for error is narrowing. Aurora assesses why the trade continues, what could break it, and where BanRep policy matters most.
February 3, 2026
Aurora Japan Report: Looking to Sunday and Beyond
Japan's election is approaching with markets focused not just on Sunday's result but on the governing math that follows. Aurora explains what to watch on election night and how the outcome could shape the next policy phase.
February 2, 2026
Aurora Lat-Am Update: Costa Rica Election Post-Mortem
Costa Rica's election result is shifting the domestic policy outlook and clarifying the constraints facing the next government. Aurora explains what the vote says about fiscal reform, governability, and regional political trends.
February 2, 2026
Warsh is becoming a market factor in his own right as investors reassess how Fed leadership could alter the policy reaction function. Aurora maps the rates, dollar, and risk-asset implications of the Warsh effect.
January 30, 2026
Aurora China Report: Thoughts from Beijing
Signals from Beijing are complicating the regional and global macro picture as China weighs stability, leverage, and external pressure. Aurora distills the key takeaways and explains what they imply for policy risk and markets.
January 30, 2026
Market visibility is deteriorating as competing macro signals obscure the next policy and asset-price direction. Aurora explains why the whiteout matters and which indicators could cut through the fog.
January 30, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: Drill Today, Debt Tomorrow
Venezuela's near-term oil upside could become tomorrow's creditor fight if new production and licensing arrangements are not matched by a credible restructuring path. Aurora explains how drilling, sanctions, and debt claims are colliding.
January 29, 2026
Aurora Australis LatAm Chartbook: Après Maduro, le Déluge
A post-Maduro scenario could unleash as many unresolved problems as it solves, from regional spillovers to creditor disputes and domestic institutional risk. Aurora uses the LatAm chartbook to show where the deluge would hit first.
January 29, 2026
Aurora Japan: Forecasts Point to Major Victory for Takaichi and LDP
Forecasts are pointing toward a major Takaichi and LDP victory, raising the odds of a stronger post-election mandate. Aurora assesses what the result would unlock and where markets may still be underestimating policy friction.
January 28, 2026
The Fed leaned dovish, but the market reaction depends on whether investors believe the inflation and labor-market backdrop can justify that tilt. Aurora assesses what changed in the statement, where Powell left optionality, and how the rates path should be repriced.
January 27, 2026
Aurora Japan: Campaign Begins in Two-Front Battle for Takaichi's Future
Takaichi's campaign is opening on two fronts, with electoral arithmetic and policy credibility both at stake. Aurora explains why the race could determine not just leadership stability but the direction of Japan's economic agenda.
January 26, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: Venezuela Litigation After Maduro
A post-Maduro Venezuela would trigger a new litigation phase as creditors test recognition, attachment, and settlement leverage. Aurora explains which legal fights matter most and how they could affect restructuring strategy.
January 26, 2026
The dollar is beginning to reflect a more complicated U.S. macro setup, with rates, growth, and policy credibility pulling against each other. Aurora maps the cross-asset implications and explains where currency pressure could spread.
January 24, 2026
Aurora Japan: Five Uncertainties as Lower House Dissolved
The dissolution of Japan's lower house turns political uncertainty into an immediate market variable. Aurora identifies the five uncertainties that will shape the campaign, the next government, and fiscal-policy expectations.
January 23, 2026
Venezuela's Hydrocarbon Law: Crude Reforms
Venezuela's hydrocarbon-law reforms could change the legal and commercial framework for oil investment just as creditors look for recoverable value. Aurora assesses what the reforms unlock, what they leave unresolved, and why crude policy is central to debt recovery.
January 23, 2026
Markets are pushing back against the cleanest version of the soft-landing narrative as policy and growth risks refuse to line up neatly. Aurora explains where resistance is appearing and what it means for macro positioning.
January 23, 2026
Aurora Japan: As Ueda Stalls, MOF Grabs the Spotlight
Ueda's caution is shifting attention toward the Ministry of Finance as markets look for the next source of Japanese policy action. Aurora explains why the BOJ's hesitation matters and how MOF could become the more important market actor.
January 22, 2026
Aurora Japan: A Fiscal Analysis of Party Manifestos
Japan's party manifestos are promising more than the fiscal backdrop can comfortably absorb. Aurora compares the policy platforms and explains which proposals matter most for budget risk, bond markets, and post-election negotiations.
January 21, 2026
Aurora Brazil Report: Ordem e Congresso
Brazil's congressional dynamics are becoming the central constraint on Lula's governing agenda and election strategy. Aurora explains how legislative order, coalition discipline, and political bargaining could shape the next phase.
January 20, 2026
Aurora Japan: Challenges Await as Japan Mobilizes for 8 February Election
Japan's February election is becoming a test of whether Takaichi can convert political control into durable governing capacity. Aurora identifies the campaign challenges ahead and what the result could mean for the policy agenda.
January 20, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: The Long and Winding Road to Venezuela Restructuring
Venezuela's restructuring path remains long, legalistic, and politically contingent despite rising hopes for a breakthrough. Aurora lays out the milestones, bottlenecks, and creditor risks that could define the road ahead.
January 16, 2026
EU January Chartbook: Stressed Out
Europe is entering the year under visible macro stress, with policy, growth, and fiscal constraints pulling in different directions. Aurora maps the chartbook evidence and explains where EU markets are most vulnerable.
January 16, 2026
AMF #84: Unintended Consequences
Policy choices meant to reduce risk are creating second-order consequences across rates, FX, and geopolitical assets. Aurora explains where unintended effects are becoming most visible and why they could drive the next cross-asset repricing.
January 16, 2026
Aurora Middle East: The Ol' Iranian Regime Change Song and Dance
Regime-change speculation around Iran is rising again, but the familiar playbook may obscure the real constraints on escalation and transition. Aurora assesses what is different this time and why markets should be cautious about easy scenarios.
January 14, 2026
Aurora Japan: Opposition Merger Talks Show Takaichi Is Not the Only Risk Taker
Opposition merger talks are adding a second source of political risk to Japan's election calculus. Aurora explains why Takaichi is not the only actor gambling, and how a reshaped opposition could alter the balance of power.
January 13, 2026
Aurora Venezuela Report: The Uneasy Triumvirate of Delcy, Diosdi, and Don
Venezuela's transition math is being pulled between Delcy, Diosdi, and Donald Trump, each with different incentives and veto points. Aurora explains why the arrangement looks unstable and how it could shape sanctions, oil, and political risk.
January 13, 2026
Aurora Japan: Takaichi Readies the Snap Election Card
Takaichi is preparing the snap-election option as a way to convert political initiative into a stronger mandate. Aurora assesses whether the timing favors the LDP and what the move would mean for fiscal policy and market expectations.
January 12, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: Trump Builds a Wall Around Venezuelan Assets
U.S. policy is drawing a tighter ring around Venezuelan assets, changing the bargaining environment for creditors and political actors alike. Aurora explains how Trump's approach could affect enforcement, recoveries, and restructuring leverage.
January 12, 2026
Fed Update: The Gloves Are Off
The Fed's posture is turning more openly combative as inflation and growth signals resist an easy policy pivot. Aurora assesses what the shift means for rate cuts, duration risk, and the market's confidence in a benign landing.
January 9, 2026
Aurora Venezuela Report: Sanctions Make the Oil Go Round
Venezuela's oil sector is being reshaped by sanctions incentives as much as by production fundamentals. Aurora assesses how licensing, enforcement, and political recognition could determine who benefits from the next turn in the sanctions cycle.
January 9, 2026
AMF #83: What Happens in Caracas
Caracas is becoming a macro catalyst rather than a contained political story, with implications for oil, EM risk, and creditor positioning. Aurora explains what a Venezuela shock could mean across assets and why the market may be underprepared.
January 9, 2026
Aurora Japan: The Snap Election Question
A snap election is becoming a central question for Japan's political outlook as Takaichi weighs momentum against risk. Aurora assesses the incentives for going early and the market implications of a shortened political timetable.
January 8, 2026
U.S. Chartbook: No Cooling in Sight
The U.S. economy is showing few signs of cooling, leaving the rates market exposed to a longer period of policy pressure. Aurora maps the chart evidence and explains why growth resilience could keep financial conditions tighter than investors expect.
January 7, 2026
Aurora Eurasia Report: Hazelnuts Just in Time for the New Year
A seemingly narrow Eurasian commodity story is carrying broader signals about sanctions, trade routes, and regional leverage. Aurora assesses why hazelnuts matter this time, and what the episode reveals about the economic pressure points around Russia and its neighbors.
January 7, 2026
Aurora Japan: Will DPFP Heed LDP's Calls to Help Stabilize Politics?
Japan's ruling party is looking to the DPFP for support as political instability threatens to constrain the policy agenda. Aurora explains whether the opposition has incentives to cooperate, and what a stabilization bargain would mean for fiscal and market risk.
January 6, 2026
Aurora Venezuela Update: The Fragility of DC Delcy
Delcy's path through Washington recognition would rest on a fragile mix of legitimacy, sanctions relief, and regime buy-in. Aurora assesses why the arrangement could unravel quickly and what it means for Venezuela's transition risk.
January 6, 2026
Aurora Public Debt Report: The Knock-On Effects of Knocking Out Maduro
Removing Maduro would not remove Venezuela's debt overhang, and could instead accelerate disputes over recognition, assets, and creditor priority. Aurora explains how regime change could reshape restructuring leverage and the recovery map.
January 4, 2026
Venezuela Update: A Maduroless Morning After
A Venezuela without Maduro would still inherit the regime's institutional fractures, security bargains, and external constraints. Aurora explains why the morning after could be less stabilizing than markets hope, and which actors would matter most.
January 3, 2026
Venezuela Update: The Midnight Maduro Extraction
Maduro's sudden removal would open a high-stakes transition before institutions, creditors, and outside governments are ready. Aurora assesses who gains leverage, where the succession risks sit, and why the first hours after extraction could shape Venezuela's political and market path.
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