Aurora Macro Strategies

Brazil R2 Election Primer

October 23, 2026

Latin America

Brazil’s presidential runoff has tightened to roughly one point after a late scandal gave Lula fresh momentum against Flávio Bolsonaro. Aurora assesses the odds of a Flávio victory, the fiscal inheritance facing either president, and the market signals to watch on election night.

The full report is available to Aurora's institutional clients. Request a copy and our team will follow up within one business day.

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Brazil R2 Election Primer