Aurora Macro Strategies

Ecuador Update: The Impunity Premium

October 31, 2026

Public DebtLatin America

Daniel Noboa is offering voters cheaper fuel while restricting his political opponents ahead of Ecuador’s high-stakes local elections. Aurora assesses whether Washington’s support can shield the government from backlash, how fiscal slippage affects bondholders, and what a stronger presidency would need to do to earn an impunity premium.

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Ecuador Update: The Impunity Premium